San Ramon Earthquake Forecast

Last Event: 2026-02-20 00:46:07 PST | Generated: 2026-02-20 14:20:27 PST | Elapsed: 13.57h

Immediate Risk (Next 24h): LOW (8.0%)

Seismic activity frequency is within normal limits.

Short-Term Trend (24h - 48h)

Forecasts below 24h are suppressed due to high model variance (MAE > 100h). Use Swarm Risk for immediate alerts.

Threshold24h48h
Mag ≥ 213.0%17.0%
Mag ≥ 30.0%0.0%
Mag ≥ 40.0%0.0%
Mag ≥ 50.0%0.0%

Long-Term Probabilities

Threshold4 Days7 Days14 Days30 Days
Mag ≥ 221.0%29.0%51.0%61.0%
Mag ≥ 30.0%0.0%6.0%12.0%
Mag ≥ 40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Mag ≥ 50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Visualizations

Reference Maps & History

Model Validation Report

Methodology: Models trained on first 80% of history, tested on last 20%.

Test Period: 2017-10-15 to 2026-02-20

1. Swarm Classification Performance

MetricScore
Accuracy87.9%
F1-Score (Swarm Class)0.79

2. Time-to-Event Regression Error (MAE)

MAE measures the average error in hours. Lower is better.
Note: "Swarm MAE" is naturally lower because events happen frequently (minutes apart).

Target Global MAE Swarm Only MAE Quiet MAE Swarm Count / Total
Mag ≥ 2 127.8 h 58.4h 168.7h 704 / 1896
Mag ≥ 3 157.4 h 127.0h 196.1h 491 / 877
Mag ≥ 4 158.2 h 109.8h 214.1h 74 / 138